Should I wait for Windows 8? No. No. and No!

Analyst: Joseph Sweeney , Date: 2011-12

Conclusion: Organisations that are still running Windows XP fleets are debating holding off a desktop refresh (to Windows 7) until Windows 8 becomes available. There are three key considerations to this discussion: product functionality, management, and licensing. In each of these three categories, IBRS concludes that there is no compelling reason to wait for Windows 8.

Observations: Window 8 was revealed during the US Build developer conference in Oct 2011 and developer kits were released shortly thereafter. It is rumoured that a beta of the new operating system will be released sometime in early 2012. Microsoft is clearly gearing up to promote its ‘next big thing’ in desktops, with product marketing messages almost certainly focusing on mobility, cloud, social media and tablet computing.

Between 40-50% of desktops are still running Windows XP¹ with enterprise fleets being the primary holdouts for the decade-old operating system². Several IT executives have contacted IBRS and asked whether they should continue with plans to migrate to Windows 7, or wait until Windows 8 is released sometime in late 2012 or early to mid 2013.

Before examining this question, it is worthwhile understanding why so many XP fleets still exist. The slow take-up of Windows 7 has not been due to it being a poor product, or one that was rejected by users (as was Vista). Instead, it has been because Windows XP continues to provide value for most organisations. Put simply, there is very little value in refreshing a fleet just for a new operating system. Therefore, IBRS strongly advises IT executives to view the Windows 7 versus Windows 8 debate as something of a distraction from the more significant desktop refresh considerations outlined in other IBRS research notes³.

Keeping the above in mind, the decision to wait for Windows 8 or continue with Windows 7 migration can be broken down into three distinct considerations: product functionality, management, and licensing.

Product Functionality: Windows 8 will have a slew of improvements that will be touted as “boosting performance” and “improving productivity”. Microsoft has already demonstrated that the Windows 8 has less memory overhead than Windows 7, runs fewer background OS processes, and comes with a slick new “Metro” interface (whose origins can be found in Windows Media Centre and Mobile Phone 7.) Furthermore, Microsoft is touting that the new OS will blend the users’ local desktop experience with a variety of cloud-based and social services.

Unfortunately, OS speed and user interface improvements do not translate into tangible business productivity improvements. Also, there are still questions regarding the business benefit of integrating public social media services into the desktop UI. IBRS sees little in the early announcements of Windows 8 to indicate that it will add significant business value to an organization over a Windows 7 desktop.

However, there may be value for Windows 8 on tablets. IBRS clients who have run pilot projects to place a full Windows desktop experience on a tablet (generally via Citrix) have consistently reported poor user satisfaction: the Windows desktop was never designed for stubby fingers. The Metro interface of Windows 8 may be a benefit here, but only for applications that are written to take advantage of it. Even though the Metro UI may be a tangible benefit, it can only be used as a pivotal argument to wait for Windows 8 if an organisation is intending a massive migration from desktop to tablets... and if consumers accept the new Metro interface.⁴

In summary, there is no major functionality within Windows 8 that suggests organisations should put on hold their desktop refresh strategies.

Management: The most compelling business reason to conduct a desktop refresh is to obtain best practices in desktop management and application deployment. Adoption of a dynamic desktop strategy allows organisations to directly address the business issues that are aligned to their organizational goals.

Most of the desktop management and application deployment features within Microsoft’s technology stack sit within the System Centre portfolio. As a result, there will be little difference between managing a Windows 7 and a Windows 8 desktop. Furthermore, the most compelling technologies for creating a dynamic desktop infrastructure (desktop virtualization, remote desktops, application virtualization) are not part of the desktop operating system. Some improvements may be made in terms of ‘follow me’ user-profile management, but third-party solutions for this are readily available from the likes of AppSense.

In summary, the most significant management tools for deploying the dynamic desktop are already available, and deploying these tools and implementing the processes needed to gain best practice for desktop management and application deployment should be brought forward to realize value as early as possible, not delayed for Windows 8.

Licensing: IBRS expects Windows 8 will be the killing blow for XP… but only because Microsoft will cease downgrade licensing rights for OEM systems. Historically, Microsoft has only ever allowed desktops procured through OEM to have their operating system downgraded by one iteration (the so-called “N-1” right.) However, due to the market’s rejection of Vista, Microsoft allowed for Windows 7 OEM systems to be downgraded two iterations (“N-2”) to Windows XP. Microsoft has attempted several times to cease providing XP downgrade rights for OEM Windows 7, and each time extended the special dispensation.

Once Windows 8 hits the market, IBRS believes Microsoft will have no compunction in ceasing OEM downgrade rights for Windows XP, and will likely revert to N-1 rights. This means organisations whose desktops are not covered by Enterprise Agreements or Software Assurance will ONLY be able to install either Windows 7 or Windows 8.

Organisations where desktops are covered by Software Assurance or Enterprise Agreements when Windows 8 is officially released will still be able to install XP on new systems.

From the above, it is clear that no matter how you are licensed, there is no real impact on the decision to move to Windows 7 now or wait for Windows 8. No matter how your organization obtains a PC and how the operating systems are licensed, you will have the ability to deploy either operating system for at least another full desktop refresh cycle (which XP has shown can now be anywhere from 3-7 years).

Next Steps:

• Do not postpone desktop refresh plans in order to wait for Windows 8.

• If the organisation’s desktops are not covered by Software Assurance or an Enterprise Agreement, begin preparing to migrate users to a new desktop based on either Windows 7 or Windows 8. This planning must include migration of the MS Office environment, applications running on IE6, and other compatibility issues not directly tied to the desktop operating system.

• If not already underway, develop a dynamic desktop strategy that aligns desktop management and application deployment directly to business goals, as outlined in “How to upgrade the desktop AND keep your job” IBRS, Nov. 2010.

• From this strategy, develop a roadmap that prioritises the introduction of specific dynamic desktop capabilities to return the greatest business value as early as possible.