Observations: The Federal government report that there are currently over 200,000 people employed in the technology industry, or about 2.7% of the working population. There are another 400,000 people employed in other related capacities connected to the ICT industry.

Looking at the broader employment market, the ABS says the labour force will grow at half the rate from 1998 to 2016 than it did from 1979-1998. The actual forecast is a growth rate of 0.8% compared with 1.9%. In the ten years since 1994 employment in the computing industry has grown on average at 16.5 % per year. Men account for two-thirds of all employees. That level of employment growth is over. <p “>  

Graduates are like first time home buyers, they keep the market ticking over, but in the period 2001-2003 ICT graduations dropped by 25%, according to the Australian Computer Society (ACS). The ACS predicted that in 2005-2006 would have the lowest number of graduates since 1992. The ACS highlighted the situation nearly two years ago by noting that the reduction in ICT graduates “of [the] order [of] 50% over three years will have a dramatic effect on the ICT labour market. Running various scenarios to see what effects are most likely to occur in the ICT labour market is outside the scope of this discussion, and best done by a micro-economist specialist.

The Australian Government website Australian Workplace produces statistics on current vacancy trends. The Australian ICT Vacancy Index is a measure of vacancies gathered from a number of websites. The Department of Employment and Workplace Relations (DEWR) ICT Vacancy index increased by 7.8% over the four weeks to mid March 2005 and year on year, the ICT index is 49.3% higher than in March 2004. In March, New South Wales had 54.8% of online vacancies or 8,600, followed by Victoria with 23.5%.

These shortages are the delayed after-effects of the last boom and consolidation and other changes to the industry in the IT slump. Labour, and to a lesser extent skills shortages, are likely to be common in the next two or three years. After 2008, a decline in the total labour market is predicted to be a reality following the retirement of “Boomers”. In fact full employment participation rates peaked nearly a decade ago and have been declining since then.

The statistics above dramatise the fact that the ICT industry is facing a serious problem, on a par with the skilled trades. Lag times in education and full qualification, coupled with the larger structural changes that have occurred in the industry in the last three years, signify a gap that will affect many organisations’ abilities to work effectively and service projects at the same levels they have done in the past.

The imbalance between labour supply and demand may also affect costs. When supply is insufficient to meet demand prices rise and it may be that in the future salaries and conditions in the ICT industry are greater than the market average. Other economic forces, such as outsourcing, could mitigate the price effect of a smaller labour pool, because more people are competitive with each other, regardless of national labour markets.

The flexibility of the workforce to move elsewhere, either out of the local market or into associated fields, but not core technology positions, may also keep prices in check.

Planning any project, but certainly major ones, well ahead will be vital to successful implementation. That statement may appear all too obvious but labour has been flexible and plentiful for a very long time. Understanding that it will be scarce requires changes in the way organisations schedule and resource their workloads.

Organisations could market themselves through community employment networks and tertiary institutions with the aim of raising their appeal to potential employees. One way or another, more effort will be made to secure staff and keep them but as many organisations declare, their people are their most important asset.